Covid Confusion?

Maybe the hype isn't justified.

Covid is not as contagious, or as deadly, as most would have you believe.

I would like to cover some information about Covid versus influenza.  Including third-world countries:

"The actual data shows that the fatality rate for those who had the flu (10%) is 6% higher than for those with the coronavirus (3.8%)."

             Source:

https://principia-scientific.com/media-reporting-on-covid19-deaths-inaccurate-misleading/

With Italy as an example of  the usual age of death pre-covid, as opposed to post covid,  in 2018 Italians had a life expectancy of 82.8.

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/italy-life-expectancy

Italian life expectancy actually increased in 2019 to 83.42, and 2020, to 83.57 years.  And for 2021, Italian life expectancy is 83.71.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ITA/italy/life-expectancy

Italy has been in the news repeatedly for supposedly terrible infection and death rates due to covid.  If we break out the numbers, Italy doesn't look so devastated by covid as it seems it should be:

Sources for the chart above:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30328-5/fulltext

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285

Consider that many who contract Covid never develop symptoms, but do develop antibodies against the virus. It has been estimated that the percent of people in the US who now have natural immunity to Covid is approaching 50%.  Some sources say 60%.  If we focus on the numbers in the chart above highlighted in yellow, we can see that even if an individual in either the US or Italy is diagnosed with a clinical case of covid, the recovery rate is actually not terribly scary: 96% to 98%.  And this is only for those who are actually diagnosed.  In the US, the percentage of the population who were diagnosed with covid in 2020 was a low 7.7%. 

That isn't so bad. Nearly everyone recovers from this covid infection, which is quite similar to the usual influenza, based on the infection and recovery rates in the chart above.  

Then there is the vaccine, either Pfizer or Moderna, which may help drive infection rates down, right?  Not so fast.  Quite a few people have tested positive for the virus AFTER receiving the shot.

In an article in  the British Medical Journal opinion blog (https://archive.ph/7XiGJ), entitled: Peter Doshi: Pfizer and Moderna’s “95% effective” vaccines—we need more details and the raw data, due to the reporting problems of the trials that have been held, the vaccines may only be 19% effective.

Only 19% effective!

For an illness with a 98.3% recovery rate, why would anyone consider taking a vaccine that is 19% effective?  Especially if that vaccine has any issues, like never having had ANY long-term human trials? 

Consider the plight of the residents of this nursing home in Auburn, NY, The Commons on St. Anthony.  The home had no coronavirus deaths.  Then on December 22, the home began to vaccinate for covid.  On December 29, One patient died of covid.  Within 2 weeks, 24 of the 300 residents had died of covid. 

http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/peace-and-prosperity/2021/january/10/a-nursing-home-had-zero-coronavirus-deaths-then-it-vaccinates-residents-for-coronavirus-and-the-deaths-begin/

Bloomberg.com has recently reported that for patients over 80, the risks of the vaccine may outweigh the benefits:

"Norway said Covid-19 vaccines may be too risky for the very old and terminally ill, the most cautious statement yet from a European health authority as countries assess the real-world side effects of the first shots to gain approval.

Norwegian officials said 23 people had died in the country a short time after receiving their first dose of the vaccine. Of those deaths, 13 have been autopsied, with the results suggesting that common side effects may have contributed to severe reactions in frail, elderly people, according to the Norwegian Medicines Agency.

“For those with the most severe frailty, even relatively mild vaccine side effects can have serious consequences,” the Norwegian Institute of Public Health said. “For those who have a very short remaining life span anyway, the benefit of the vaccine may be marginal or irrelevant.”

     https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/norway-warns-of-vaccination-risks-for-sick-patients-over-80?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social

Health care workers, who we might expect to be first in line to get the covid vaccine, are not especially eager.  Up to 60% are refusing the shot.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/31/world/ohio-offered-nursing-home-workers-early-dibs-on-a-vaccine-many-said-no.html

 The vaccine is not without risks, especially to the elderly population. Covid has its risks, too, but doesn't seem to lower life expectancy.  We will know more as the data comes in, but for now, I believe the jury is not yet in on which is the greater risk.

May God bless you as we each make our choices.